Heat, humid soil and plant cover. These are some of the conditions that determine whether midges can thrive in a particular area. These are also conditions that can be measured from satellites. Danish scientists are therefore going to investigate if satellites can predict when and where the midges are present in numbers. When the knowledge gathered about the midges and their preferred conditions for living and reproducing is combined with data regarding, for example, soil types and the presence of cattle and sheep farms, the scientists plan to develop a computer model, which can be used to calculate risk areas for infection with Bluetongue in Denmark.

With an efficient computer model, the scientists have a tool which can help calculate how quickly the virus develops in midges and how fast the infection spreads in various locations and in different seasons. A robust computer model can also be used for theoretical experiments with various control and vaccination strategies in order to see how, if possible, an epidemic like Bluetongue can be brought under control in a quick and cheap way.

The present outbreak of Bluetongue has developed into one of the most widespread epidemics in cattle and sheep in Europe in modern time. In just a few years the disease has spread from Africa and the Middle East to large parts of Europe, including Denmark. The disease spreads with great speed every summer. In 2007 more than 50,000 farms were infected in Western Europe and when the outbreak was at its peak, one German farm was infected every 10 minutes. The spread of Bluetongue to northern Europe may be an effect of global warming and climate change.

Bluetongue only affects ruminants. The disease is seldom lethal in cattle while mortality can be as high as 30% in sheep. Bluetongue virus is not harmful for humans. The disease is not spread directly from animal to animal, but needs midges as vectors.

The project has been supported by the Food Research Programme under The Directorate for Food, Fisheries and Agri Business and is led by the Technical University of Denmark’s National Veterinary Institute. The project is a carried out in collaboration between the Department of Integrated Pest Management, at the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Aarhus, Environmental Biology (ENSPAC) at Roskilde University and the Department of Geography and Geology at the University of Copenhagen.

For more information please contact: Head of research unit Karl-Martin Vagn Jensen, Department of Integrated Pest Management, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Aarhus, telephone: +45 8999 3941, e-mail: Karl-MartinV.Jensen@agrsci.dk